Ready to Simulate

The Specialty Retailers Alliance is a trade association of 1,200 independent retailers, down from 1,700 a decade ago. Private-equity roll-ups are consolidating the industry and the Alliance loses about two member companies a month. Twice it answered the revenue pressure by raising dues. Both times revenue improved for a year, then membership fell harder and revenue resumed sliding.

The October convention is the main source of revenue each year. Reserves have fallen from $2.90M to $1.10M, about 6 months of runway, and spending exceeds revenue by roughly $23,000 a month. The Alliance runs on 14 full-time staff.

Executive Director John "JJ" Jenson wants to grow the certification program, which creates more engaged membership that spends more money, and has also proposed a third dues increase. The board of 10 advises him, and its price consciousness has made increases difficult to agree upon. Use the levers to test those choices and watch how the system responds over five years.

Composite teaching case. All parameters are illustrative assumptions, not client data. Insight-grade, not forecast-grade.